The prospect of renewable energy wind energy is promising
2024-06-16 4584The Institute of Meteorological Sciences estimates that China's wind energy has exceeded the total of Europe, and the annual sunshine exceeds 2200 hours. Last year, wind energy production increased by 80%, and wind power
The power plant has been built from the grasslands of Inner Mongolia to the surrounding areas of Shanghai. The wind power plants along the coast of Guangdong are also under planning and construction. As of the end of 2005, China had built 62 wind farms outside of Taiwan Province, installed 1864 wind turbines, and had a total installed capacity of 1.266 million kilowatts, ranking 8th in the world and 2nd in Asia. At the same time, three-quarters of China's wind power equipment market share is occupied by foreign equipment manufacturers. According to the national "Medium - and Long Term Plan for Renewable Energy Development", by 2020, the total installed capacity of domestic wind power can reach 30 million kilowatts, with an average annual growth rate of 23.5%, and there is a lot of room for growth.
However, the main reason for being optimistic about the development of wind energy is that it has a comparative advantage in cost and the most favorable conditions for large-scale commercialization. At present, wind power technology has become relatively mature. The cost of wind power per kilowatt hour for major wind farms in the world was about 4 cents in 2005, which can compete with nuclear power, coal, and gas under equal conditions, and there is still room for decline; In terms of the industrial operation of wind energy, with the support of the government, there is currently a high level of enthusiasm for the development of wind power in China (from the perspective of listed companies, there are currently 13 companies participating in the development of wind energy, which is equivalent to twice the number of companies half a year ago). In addition, the economy of wind energy rich regions in China is generally relatively backward, and the development of the wind energy industry is also conducive to narrowing the wealth gap between regions, which is in line with the national theme of building new rural areas.
From the overall positive state of the wind energy industry, it can be found that there are opportunities in the three major links of wind turbine component manufacturing, wind turbine manufacturing, and wind farm operation.
Fan component link
At present, domestic wind turbines are still mainly based on low single capacity fans, and breakthroughs in related component manufacturing technology are relatively easy; Moreover, the country has a relatively good policy orientation, requiring the localization rate of wind power equipment to reach over 70%, and wind farms that do not meet the requirements are not allowed to be built; In addition, the domestic mechanical manufacturing industry has certain cost advantages, which will lead to a rapid increase in the localization rate of wind turbine components in the coming years. Among various components, the blades and gearbox, as the core components of the fan, have relatively high technical barriers and account for the largest proportion of the fan's cost. Listed companies with relevant technological processes, such as Xinmao Technology, Tianqi Shares, and Zhongcai Technology, can pay attention to them.
Fan assembly field
Although foreign wind turbine manufacturers in China also account for 77.3% of the market share. For domestic wind turbine manufacturers, the technological bottleneck of high single capacity wind turbines is obvious, while the competition in the field of low single capacity wind turbine assembly has rapidly intensified in the past two years due to the involvement of numerous domestic manufacturers. However, this does not mean that domestic manufacturers have no opportunity at all. Due to the advantages of manufacturing costs and the support of national policies, it is highly likely that there will be 1 to 3 competitive wind turbine manufacturers in China, such as Goldwind Technology (not yet listed), which currently holds an 18% market share among domestic manufacturers. Among the listed companies, Huayi Electric and Xiangdian Co., Ltd. are currently taking active actions.
Wind farm operation
Looking ahead to the future, the operation prospects of wind farms are still worth looking forward to: 1. At the policy level, with the acceleration of the country's improvement of wind power related policies, the solutions to the above problems will gradually become clear; 2. More than 30% of the current cost of wind farms is the cost of wind turbines, and the cost per kilowatt of wind turbines will decrease due to technological progress and the supply and demand pattern of wind turbines. The World Wind Energy Association predicts that the cost per kilowatt of wind turbines worldwide will decrease from the current $950 to $650 in 2010, and further to $500 in 2020.
In the past two years, the enthusiasm of listed companies to invest in wind power has continued to rise. Baoxin Energy (000690) has determined the future development policy for sea and land wind power. It is expected that renewable energy will account for about 50% of Baotou's new energy generation in the coming years. The Phase I project of Jiahu Wind Farm in Lufeng City, currently under construction, has a construction scale of 495000 kilowatts and an estimated investment of 427.51 million yuan; The second phase of the project is also awaiting approval from the Provincial Law and Reform Commission.
At the same time, Shenhua Holdings (600653) announced its intention to establish Inner Mongolia Shenhua Xiehe Wind Power Investment Co., Ltd. in a joint venture with Hong Kong Xiehe Energy Holdings Co., Ltd., with a planned investment of 397 million yuan to jointly carry out wind power projects. The first phase of the 500000 kilowatt Gongbao Lage wind farm project in Taipusiqi, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will be connected to the grid for power generation in November this year. The original * ST Instrument (000862), Datang Power Generation (601991), Zhangze Electric Power (000767), Luneng Mount Taishan (000720), Light Industry Machinery (600605) and other companies have made relatively large investments recently.
It should be pointed out that although the stock prices of related listed companies have performed well, most of them are still in the initial stage of renewable energy investment and construction, and renewable energy cannot bring substantial income and profits in a short period of time. Investors need to pay attention to this. Of course, this does not mean that there are no investment opportunities. It can be observed that some companies currently have a relatively low profit base. Once renewable energy projects are successful, the likelihood of significant growth in company profits in the future is very high.
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